Keating Muething & Klekamp PLL One East Fourth Street Suite 1400 Cincinnati, Ohio 45202 Attention: Edward E. Steiner, Esq. Mark A. Weiss, Esq. 513-579-6400 |
Squire, Sanders & Dempsey L.L.P. 312 Walnut Street Suite 3500 Cincinnati, Ohio 45202 Attention: Stephen C. Mahon, Esq. 513-361-1200 |
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a. | The filing of solicitation materials or an information statement subject to Regulation 14A [17 CFR 240.14a-1 to 240.14b-2], Regulation 14C [17 CFR 240.14c-1 to 240.14c-101] or Rule 13e-3(c) [§240.13e-3(c)] under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. | ||
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b. | The filing of a registration statement under the Securities Act of 1933. | ||
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c. | A tender offer. | ||
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d. | None of the above. | ||
Check the following box if the soliciting materials or information statement referred to in checking box (a) are preliminary copies: þ | ||||
Check the following box if the filing is a final amendment reporting the results of the transaction: o |
Transaction | Amount of filing fee | ||||
valuation* $235,617,707 | $7,233.46** | ||||
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Check box if any part of the fee is offset as provided by Rule 0-11(a)(2) and identify the filing with which the offsetting fee was previously paid. Identify the previous filing by registration statement number, or the Form or Schedule and the date of its filing. |
Amount previously Paid: | ||||
Form or Registration No.: | ||||
Filing Party: |
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Date Filed: |
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Period | No. of Shares | Range of Prices | Average Price | |||||||||
2005 First Quarter |
31,700 | $ | 16.72-$17.00 | $ | 16.82 | |||||||
2005 Second Quarter |
119,400 | $ | 15.22-$17.00 | $ | 16.16 | |||||||
2006 First Quarter |
28,600 | $ | 19.20-$19.50 | $ | 19.15 | |||||||
2006 Second Quarter |
28,600 | $ | 19.20-$19.50 | $ | 19.48 | |||||||
2006 Third Quarter |
7,400 | $ | 19.69-$20.00 | $ | 19.76 |
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GREAT AMERICAN FINANCIAL RESOURCES, INC. | ||
August 16, 2007
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/s/ Mark F. Muething | |
Date
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Mark F. Muething | |
Executive Vice President | ||
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. | ||
August 16, 2007
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/s/ James C. Kennedy | |
Date
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James C. Kennedy | |
Vice President | ||
GAFRI ACQUISITION CORP. | ||
August 16, 2007
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/s/ James C. Kennedy | |
Date
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James C. Kennedy | |
Vice President | ||
August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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Kenneth C. Ambrecht | |
August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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Carl H. Lindner | |
August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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Carl H. Lindner III | |
August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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Carl H. Lindner III |
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August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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S. Craig Lindner | |
August 16, 2007
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* | |
Date
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William R. Martin |
August 16, 2007
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*By: | /s/ Karl J. Grafe | ||||
Date
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Karl J. Grafe | |||||
Attorney in Fact |
7
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL 877-248-6417 (toll free) or 718-921-8317 www.amstock.com info@amstock.comIf delivering by mail: American Stock Transfer & Trust Company Operations Center Attn: Reorganization Department P.O. Box 2042 New York, New York 10272-2042 If delivering by hand or courier: American Stock Transfer & Trust Company Operations Center Attn: Reorganization Department 6201 15th Avenue Brooklyn, New York 11219 COMPANY NAMECUSIPCOMPANY #ACCOUNT NUMBER ACCOUNT REGISTRATION:Please list all certificates being submitted:CERTIFICATE NUMBERNUMBER OF SHARE/UNITSCertificated shares:Additional certificate numbers can be listed on separate paper. If your certificates are registered in different names, a separate Letter of Transmittal must be submitted for each registration. Additional Letters of Transmittal can be obtained by accessing http://www.amstock.com/shareholder/sh_downloads.asp or by contacting American Stock Transfer & Tr ust Company (AST) at the number listed above. If your certificates have been lost or destroyed, you must write to AST at the address above or report the loss by accessing your account at http://www.amstock.com. You will be required to submit the necessary forms and a check for the posting of a surety bond, the details of which will be provided by AST. Please note that this form must be completed and remitted along with your replacement formsBook-Entry Shares:Plan Shares: Total Shares:You must submit your original certificates with this Letter of Transmittal. Shares held in Book-entry and Plan form are uncertificated and need not be resubmitted (although this Letter of Transmittal still must be completed. SPECIAL ISSUANCE INSTRUCTIONS To be completed ONLY if issuance is to be made in a name other than that shown above. If you have completed this section, your signature on the reverse side of this Letter of Transmittal must be guaranteed by a bank, broker or other financial institution that is a member of a Securities Transfer Association-approved medallion program such as STAMP, SEMP or MSP. ISSUE TO: Name: Address: SOCIAL SECURITY OR EMPLOYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER OF RECIPIENT:SPECIAL DELIV ERY INSTRUCTIONS To be completed ONLY if delivery is to be made to someone other than the registered holder(s), or to such registered holder(s) at an address other than that shown above. If you have completed this section, your signature on the reverse side of this Letter of Transmittal must be guaranteed by a bank, broker or other financial institution that is a member of a Securities Transfer Association-approved medallion program such as STAMP, SEMP or MSP. MAIL TO: Name: Address: ?????????? P LEASE CHECK THIS BOX IF THIS IS A PERMANENT CHANGE OF ADDRESS |
SUBSTITUTE FORM W-9 REQUEST FOR TAXPAYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER AND CERTIFICATION (THIS SUBSTITUTE FORM W-9 MUST BE COMPLETED PLEASE REFER TO ACCOMPANYING GUIDELINES) PLEASE ENTER YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY OR EIN NUMBER: ????????? Under penalties of perjury, I certify that: (1) The number shown on this form is my correct Taxpayer Identification Number; (2) I am not subject to backup withholding either because I am exempt from backup wit hholding, I have not been notified by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that I am subject to backup withholding as a result of failure to report all interest or dividends, or the IRS has notified me that I am not subject to backup withholding; and (3) I am a U.S. Person (or a U.S. resident alien). Certification Instructions You must cross out Item (2) above if you have been notified by the IRS that you are subject to backup withholding because of underreporting interest or divi dends on your tax return. However, if after being notified by the IRS that you were subject to backup withholding you received another notification from the IRS stating that you are no longer subject to backup withholding, do not cross out item (2). Signature: Date: NOTE: Certain stockholders (including, among others, all corporations and certain foreign individuals) are not subject to these backup withholding and reporting requirements. In order to satisfy the Exchange Agent that a foreign individual qu alifies as an exempt recipient, such stockholder must submit a statement, signed under penalties of perjury, attesting to that individuals exempt status, on the appropriate and properly completed Form W-8, or successor form. Such statements can be obtained from the Exchange Agent. IF YOU ARE AWAITING TAXPAYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER, WRITE APPLIED FOR IN THE SUBSTITUTE FORM W-9 ABOVE, AND COMPLETE AND SIGN BOTH THIS CERTIFICATION AND THE SUBSTITUTE FORM W-9. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE ENCLOSED GUIDELINES. I certify under penalties of perjury that a taxpayer identification number has not been issued to me, and either (a) I have mailed or delivered an application to receive a taxpayer identification number to the appropriate Internal Revenue Service Cent er or Social Security Administration Office or (b) I intend to mail or deliver an application in the near future. I understand that if I do not provide a taxpayer identification number by the time of payment, a percentage (currently 28 percent) of all reportable cash payments made to me will be withheld until I provide a number and such retained amounts will be remitted to the Internal Revenue Service as backup withholding. Signature: Date: The method of delivery of certificate(s) and all other re quired documents is at the election and risk of the owner. If you elect to send them by mail, it is recommended that you send them by certified or registered mail with return receipt requested. Delivery will be deemed effective only when received by AST. If payment for securities is to be made to any person other than the registered holder, or if surrendered certificates are registered in the name of any person other than the person(s) signing the letter of transmittal, any stock transfer taxes payable as a result of the transfer to such person (whether imposed on the registered holder or such person) shall be paid prior to the submission of this letter of transmittal. AST reserves the right to deduct the amount of such taxes from the payment, if satisfacto ry evidence of the payment of such taxes, or exemption therefrom, is not submitted. All questions as to the validity, form and eligibility of any surrender of certificates will be determined by AST and the issuer and such determination shall be final and binding. AST and the issuer reserve the right to waive any irregularities or defects in the surrender of any certificates. A surrender will not be deemed to have been made until all irregularities have been c ured or waived. SIGNATURES THIS LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL MUST BE SIGNED BY ALL REGISTERED OWNERS Each registered owner listed on reverse side hereof must sign here exactly as the name(s) appear(s) in the account registration. If all registered owners have signed this Letter of Transmittal, no endorsements of certificates or separate stock powers are required. If the Letter of Transmittal is signed by a person other than the registered owner (e.g., where the shares have been assigned), the Letter of Transmittal must be accompanied by a stock power guaranteed by a bank, broker or other financial institution that is a member of a Securities Transfer Association-approved medallion program such as STAMP, SEMP or MSP. If signature is by a trustee, executor, administrator, guardian, attorney-in-fact, officer of a corporation or other acting in a fiduciary or representative capacity, it must be so indicated and proper evidence of authority, satisfactory to AST, must be submitted. Signature(s):Date: Telephone Number (Required)E-Mail Address A Medallion Guarantee is ONLY required on this Letter of Transmittal in the event that: The Special Issuance Instructions box has been completed; or The Special Delivery Instructions box has been completedâ MEDALLION GUARANTEE STAMP â See Instructions at Left FOR AST USE ONLY: |
Exhibit (c)(3)
April 17, 2007 Confidential Presentation to the Special Committee of Independent Directors of the Board of Directors of Draft |
Disclaimer |
Table of Contents |
I. Executive Summary |
Executive Summary Executive Summary Cochran Caronia Waller ("CCW") has been requested by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI" or the "Company") to prepare a financial analysis (the "Financial Analysis") of the Company in connection with a potential buyout proposal by American Financial Group ("AFG") or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries, for the publicly held shares not owned by AFG or its subsidiaries (the "AFG Proposal"). In preparing the Financial Analysis, CCW reviewed, among other things, the following information: Publicly available information concerning the business, financial condition and operations of GAFRI Internal information prepared by Company management concerning the business, financial condition and operations of GAFRI Financial projections for GAFRI prepared by Company management Audited financial statements of GAFRI for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2004, 2005 and 2006 Discussions with GAFRI management concerning the Company, its operating environment, financial condition, prospects and strategic objectives Historical stock price performance and other valuation metrics for GAFRI Certain relevant market and financial data of GAFRI, companies comparable to GAFRI and transactions comparable to the AFG Proposal |
Overview of Selected Methodologies The table below summarizes the types of financial analyses performed and other factors considered by CCW: Historical Stock Price Performance Historical stock trading performance of GAFRI common shares compared with the stock trading performances of certain comparable company indices as well as broader market indices Historical Trading Multiples Historical price / book value trading multiples over time and average trading multiples over various periods Public Market Trading Analysis Premiums Paid Analysis Premiums paid in comparable minority stake buy-out transactions Comparison of selected financial, operating and trading information and ratios (e.g., price / earnings and price / book value) using publicly available information of a peer group of companies Price / Book Value vs. ROE Analysis Correlation between return on equity (ROE) and price / book value for comparable companies and resulting implied price / book value multiple for GAFRI Dividend Discount Analysis Calculation of the sum of the Company's projected cash flows to common shareholders and a terminal value discounted at GAFRI's cost of equity Description Executive Summary |
II. Corporate Overview |
GAFRI Public Market Data Public Market Summary Average Weekly Trading Volume Corporate Overview Note: Calculated for full business weeks, Monday through Friday. Data is through Friday, April 13, 2007. Source: Bloomberg. |
Historical Price / Volume Chart and Major Events Corporate Overview Source: Bloomberg. 5/1/03 GAFRI reports Q1 '03 core operating earnings results below Q1 '02. 7/31/03 GAFRI 2Q '03 pre-tax core earnings fall short of 2Q '02 pre-tax core earnings because of noncash pre-tax charge. 11/14/03 Moody's affirms ratings of GAFRI and revises stable outlook. 5/17/04 Great American Life Insurance Co. acquires $780 million fixed annuity block from National Health Insurance Co. 10/21/04 GAFRI Q3 '04 net income rises compared to Q3 '03. 4/28/05 GAFRI increases the number of authorized shares available for repurchase to 3.5% of outstanding common stock. 2/1/06 GAFRI completes sale of Great American Life Assurance Co. of Puerto Rico. 5/1/06 GAFRI announces it will acquire Ceres Group for $205 million. 2/23/07 AFG offers to acquire remaining shares of GAFRI for $23.50 per share. 8/21/05 GAFRI Q2 2005 earnings rise compared to Q2 '04. 4/26/05 GAFRI reports improved Q1 '05 core net operating results compared to Q1 '04. 6/28/02 GAFRI completes the acquisition of Manhattan National Life for $48.5 million. 7/31/02 GAFRI announces Q2 '02 diluted net operating earnings per share growth compared to Q2 '01. 10/1/03 A.M. Best affirms its rating of GAFRI's largest subsidiary, Great American Life Insurance Co., as "A" (Excellent). |
GAFRI Historical Earnings Diluted Earnings Per Share Return on Average Equity (Excl. FAS 115) Operating Earnings Per Share Operating Return on Average Equity (Excl. FAS 115) Corporate Overview Source: SNL DataSource and public SEC filings. Operating income equals net income after income taxes, before extraordinary items, realized gains and certain non-recurring items as reported by the Company. The amortization of deferred acquisition costs related to realized gains is also excluded. |
GAFRI Selected Historical Financial Results Total Revenue Total Assets Net Policy Revenue Book Value Per Share (Excl. FAS 115) (Dollars in millions, except for per share data) Corporate Overview Source: SNL DataSource, public SEC filings and GAFRI internal financial documents. |
Historical Sector Stock Performance vs. General Market One Year Stock Performance Three Year Stock Performance Five Year Stock Performance Corporate Overview Source: Capital IQ. Note: CCW Life & Annuity Index includes AEL, CNO, FFG, NWLIA, NFS, PLFE, PL and TMK. |
Historical GAFRI Price to Book Value Multiples (Excl. FAS 115) Corporate Overview Source: SNL Financial, GFR 10-Ks and 10-Qs. Historical GAFRI Price to Book Value Multiples (Excl. FAS 115) |
Historical GAFRI Price / Volume Trading Summary GAFRI Trading Volume by Price Range Last 3 Years (2/22/04 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Volume by Price Range 1 Year (2/22/06 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Range Last 3 Years (2/22/04 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Range 1 Year (2/22/06 to 2/22/07) Corporate Overview Source: Bloomberg. GAFRI announced on February 23, 2007 that AFG proposed to acquire the shares of GAFRI that AFG and it subsidiaries do not already own for $23.50 per share in cash. |
2007 - 2009 Management Plan Corporate Overview |
III. Financial Analysis |
Financial Analysis Summary Financial Analysis |
Illustrative Stock Price Matrix Financial Analysis |
Market Trading Statistics for GAFRI and Selected Comparables Financial Analysis |
As a capital intensive business, life insurance valuations in the public markets have been strongly correlated to return on equity: Companies with a higher expected return on equity generally have been rewarded with a higher valuation The price to book vs. ROE analysis examines the correlation between the expected ROEs and price / book value multiples of comparable companies. The resulting regression line provides the implied book value multiple for a company at a given expected ROE. A company positioned below the line implies that the company is currently undervalued based on its expected ROE, while a position above the line suggests that a company is overvalued by the market Price to Book vs. ROE Analysis Price to Book vs. ROE Chart Source: SNL DataSource. Note: NWLIA and PLFE not on graph because no public earnings estimates are available. Financial Analysis AEL = American Equity Investment Life Holding Co. CNO = Conseco, Inc. FFG = FBL Financial Group, Inc. GFR = Great American Financial Resources, Inc. NWLIA = National Western Life Insurance Company NFS = Nationwide Financial Services, Inc. PLFE = Presidential Life Corporation PL = Protective Life Corporation TMK = Torchmark Corporation |
While forward ROE estimates typically have been considered in determining an implied book value for a company, many of GAFRI's comparable companies have not been covered by research analysts and therefore do not have forward earnings estimates. In the regression below, LTM Operating ROE was used, excluding the impact of realized gains and losses, as a proxy for forward ROE estimates The one-year average weekly trading volume for each company as a percentage of shares outstanding also was reviewed. It would appear that average weekly trading volumes for GAFRI's peer companies do not impact whether the companies are over- or under-valued by the market Price to Book vs. ROE Analysis (cont'd) Price to Book vs. LTM Operating ROE Chart Source: SNL DataSource. Note: One-year average weekly volume / shares outstanding in parentheses. Financial Analysis AEL = American Equity Investment Life Holding Co. CNO = Conseco, Inc. FFG = FBL Financial Group, Inc. GFR = Great American Financial Resources, Inc. NWLIA = National Western Life Insurance Company NFS = Nationwide Financial Services, Inc. PLFE = Presidential Life Corporation PL = Protective Life Corporation TMK = Torchmark Corporation |
Summary of Dividend Discount Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Summary DCF with Net Income Exit Multiple (Dollars in millions, except per share data) DCF with Book Value Exit Multiple Financial Analysis |
Cost of Equity Calculation Cost of Capital Assumptions Dividends represent the cash available to common shareholders after funding capital requirements, working capital needs and debt financing requirements. These cash flows were therefore discounted at GAFRI's required return on equity (cost of equity) as opposed to its weighted average cost of capital ("WACC"). GAFRI's estimated cost of equity, using a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) approach, is approximately 11.5%. GAFRI's estimated WACC is approximately 10.3% (1) (1) GAFRI's WACC was calculated as the market weighted average of its estimated cost of equity and estimated after-tax cost of debt. Financial Analysis |
Summary of Premiums Paid Analysis Financial Analysis |
Appendix A. Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - Financial Institutions Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - Insurance Companies Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - 100% Cash Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - 100% Cash (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Appendix B. Real Estate |
Overview of Real Estate Portfolio Real Estate Source: GAFRI Management. Appraised value was prior to receipt of $15 million payment from Palm Beach County in exchange for restrictions on development rights and guaranty of public access. Net of estimated profit sharing payments to be due upon sale of property. Reflects value of GAFRI's proportionate ownership share only. |
Exhibit (c)(4)
May 15, 2007 Confidential Presentation to the Special Committee of Independent Directors of the Board of Directors of Draft |
Disclaimer |
Table of Contents |
I. Executive Summary |
Executive Summary Executive Summary Cochran Caronia Waller ("CCW") has been requested by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI" or the "Company") to prepare a financial analysis (the "Financial Analysis") of the Company in connection with a potential buyout proposal by American Financial Group ("AFG") or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries, for the publicly held shares not owned by AFG or its subsidiaries (the "AFG Proposal"). In preparing the Financial Analysis, CCW reviewed, among other things, the following information: Publicly available information concerning the business, financial condition and operations of GAFRI Internal information prepared by Company management concerning the business, financial condition and operations of GAFRI Financial projections for GAFRI prepared by Company management Audited financial statements of GAFRI for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 and for the five years ended December 31, 2002 Discussions with GAFRI management concerning the Company, its operating environment, financial condition, prospects and strategic objectives Historical stock price performance and other valuation metrics for GAFRI Certain relevant market and financial data of GAFRI, companies comparable to GAFRI and transactions comparable to the AFG Proposal |
Overview of Selected Methodologies The table below summarizes the types of financial analyses performed and other factors considered by CCW: Historical Stock Price Performance Historical stock trading performance of GAFRI common shares compared with the stock trading performances of certain comparable company indices as well as broader market indices Historical Trading Multiples Historical price / book value trading multiples over time and average trading multiples over various periods Public Market Trading Analysis Premiums Paid Analysis Premiums paid in comparable minority stake buy-out transactions Comparison of selected financial, operating and trading information and ratios (e.g., price / earnings and price / book value) using publicly available information of a peer group of companies Price / Book Value vs. ROE Analysis Correlation between return on equity (ROE) and price / book value for comparable companies and resulting implied price / book value multiple for GAFRI Dividend Discount Analysis Calculation of the sum of the Company's projected cash flows to common shareholders and a terminal value discounted at GAFRI's cost of equity Description Executive Summary |
II. Corporate Overview |
GAFRI Public Market Data Public Market Summary Average Weekly Trading Volume Corporate Overview Note: Calculated for full business weeks, Monday through Friday. Data is through Friday, May 11, 2007. Source: Bloomberg. |
Historical Price / Volume Chart and Major Events Corporate Overview Source: Bloomberg. 5/1/03 GAFRI reports Q1 '03 core operating earnings results below Q1 '02. 7/31/03 GAFRI 2Q '03 pre-tax core earnings fall short of 2Q '02 pre-tax core earnings because of noncash pre-tax charge. 11/14/03 Moody's affirms ratings of GAFRI and revises stable outlook. 5/17/04 Great American Life Insurance Co. acquires $780 million fixed annuity block from National Health Insurance Co. 10/21/04 GAFRI Q3 '04 net income rises compared to Q3 '03. 4/28/05 GAFRI increases the number of authorized shares available for repurchase to 3.5% of outstanding common stock. 2/1/06 GAFRI completes sale of Great American Life Assurance Co. of Puerto Rico. 5/1/06 GAFRI announces it will acquire Ceres Group for $205 million. 2/23/07 AFG offers to acquire remaining shares of GAFRI for $23.50 per share. 8/21/05 GAFRI Q2 '05 earnings rise compared to Q2 '04. 4/26/05 GAFRI reports improved Q1 '05 core net operating results compared to Q1 '04. 6/28/02 GAFRI completes the acquisition of Manhattan National Life for $48.5 million. 7/31/02 GAFRI announces Q2 '02 diluted net operating earnings per share growth compared to Q2 '01. 10/1/03 A.M. Best affirms its rating of GAFRI's largest subsidiary, Great American Life Insurance Co., as "A" (Excellent). |
GAFRI Historical Earnings Diluted Earnings Per Share Return on Average Equity (Excl. FAS 115) Operating Earnings Per Share Operating Return on Average Equity (Excl. FAS 115) Corporate Overview Source: SNL DataSource and public SEC filings. Operating income equals net income after income taxes, before extraordinary items, realized gains and certain non-recurring items as reported by the Company. The amortization of deferred acquisition costs related to realized gains is also excluded. |
GAFRI Selected Historical Financial Results Total Revenue Total Assets Net Policy Revenue Book Value Per Share (Excl. FAS 115) (Dollars in millions, except for per share data) Corporate Overview Source: SNL DataSource, public SEC filings and GAFRI internal financial documents. |
Historical Sector Stock Performance vs. General Market One Year Stock Performance Three Year Stock Performance Five Year Stock Performance Corporate Overview Source: Capital IQ. Note: CCW Life & Annuity Index includes AEL, CNO, FFG, NWLIA, NFS, PLFE, PL and TMK. |
Historical GAFRI Price to Book Value Multiples (Excl. FAS 115) Corporate Overview Source: SNL Financial, GFR 10-Ks and 10-Qs. Historical GAFRI Price to Book Value Multiples (Excl. FAS 115) |
Historical GAFRI Price / Volume Trading Summary GAFRI Trading Volume by Price Range Last 3 Years (2/22/04 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Volume by Price Range 1 Year (2/22/06 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Range Last 3 Years (2/22/04 to 2/22/07) GAFRI Trading Range 1 Year (2/22/06 to 2/22/07) Corporate Overview Source: Bloomberg. GAFRI announced after close of business on February 22, 2007 that AFG proposed to acquire the shares of GAFRI that AFG and it subsidiaries do not already own for $23.50 per share in cash. |
2007 - 2009 Management Plan Corporate Overview |
III. Financial Analysis |
Financial Analysis Summary Financial Analysis |
Illustrative Stock Price Matrix Financial Analysis |
Market Trading Statistics for GAFRI and Selected Comparables Financial Analysis |
As a capital intensive business, life insurance valuations in the public markets have been strongly correlated to return on equity: Companies with a higher expected return on equity generally have been rewarded with a higher valuation The price to book vs. ROE analysis examines the correlation between the expected ROEs and price / book value multiples of comparable companies. The resulting regression line provides the implied book value multiple for a company at a given expected ROE. A company positioned below the line implies that the company is currently undervalued based on its expected ROE, while a position above the line suggests that a company is overvalued by the market Price to Book vs. ROE Analysis Price to Book vs. ROE Chart Source: SNL DataSource. Note: NWLIA and PLFE not on graph because no public earnings estimates are available. Financial Analysis AEL = American Equity Investment Life Holding Co. CNO = Conseco, Inc. FFG = FBL Financial Group, Inc. GFR = Great American Financial Resources, Inc. NWLIA = National Western Life Insurance Company NFS = Nationwide Financial Services, Inc. PLFE = Presidential Life Corporation PL = Protective Life Corporation TMK = Torchmark Corporation |
While forward ROE estimates typically have been considered in determining an implied book value for a company, many of GAFRI's comparable companies have not been covered by research analysts and therefore do not have forward earnings estimates. In the regression below, LTM Operating ROE was used, excluding the impact of realized gains and losses, as a proxy for forward ROE estimates The one-year average weekly trading volume for each company as a percentage of shares outstanding also was reviewed. It would appear that average weekly trading volumes for GAFRI's peer companies do not impact whether the companies are over- or under-valued by the market Price to Book vs. ROE Analysis (cont'd) Price to Book vs. LTM Operating ROE Chart Source: SNL DataSource. Note: One-year average weekly volume / shares outstanding in parentheses. Financial Analysis AEL = American Equity Investment Life Holding Co. CNO = Conseco, Inc. FFG = FBL Financial Group, Inc. GFR = Great American Financial Resources, Inc. NWLIA = National Western Life Insurance Company NFS = Nationwide Financial Services, Inc. PLFE = Presidential Life Corporation PL = Protective Life Corporation TMK = Torchmark Corporation |
Summary of Dividend Discount Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Summary DCF with Net Income Exit Multiple (Dollars in millions, except per share data) DCF with Book Value Exit Multiple Financial Analysis |
Cost of Equity Calculation Cost of Capital Assumptions Dividends represent the cash available to common shareholders after funding capital requirements, working capital needs and debt financing requirements. These cash flows were therefore discounted at GAFRI's required return on equity (cost of equity) as opposed to its weighted average cost of capital ("WACC"). GAFRI's estimated cost of equity, using a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) approach, is approximately 11.3%. GAFRI's estimated WACC is approximately 10.1% (1) (1) GAFRI's WACC was calculated as the market weighted average of its estimated cost of equity and estimated after-tax cost of debt. Financial Analysis |
Summary of Premiums Paid Analysis Financial Analysis |
Appendix A. Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. (1) Indicates pending transaction. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - All (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. Note: Pending transactions not included in mean, median and percentile calculations. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - Financial Institutions Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. Note: Pending transactions not included in mean, median and percentile calculations. (1) Indicates pending transaction. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - Insurance Companies Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. Note: Pending transactions not included in mean, median and percentile calculations. (1) Indicates pending transaction. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - 100% Cash Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. (1) Indicates pending transaction. |
Precedent Minority Buy-Out Transactions - 100% Cash (cont'd) Selected Acquisitions of Minority Interests Source: SDC Financial. Note: Pending transactions not included in mean, median and percentile calculations. |
Appendix B. Real Estate |
Overview of Real Estate Portfolio Real Estate Source: GAFRI Management. Appraised value was prior to receipt of $15 million payment from Palm Beach County in exchange for restrictions on development rights and guaranty of public access. Net of estimated profit sharing payments to be due upon sale of property. Reflects value of GAFRI's proportionate ownership share only. |
Date:
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August 7, 2007 | By: | /s/ Kenneth C. Ambrecht | |||||
Kenneth C. Ambrecht |
Date:
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August 7, 2007 | By: | /s/ William R. Martin | |||||
William R. Martin |